Ice flashover, lightning flashover and bird\r\ndamage are the main reasons that cause transmission\r\nfacility failure. The impact of these environmental factors\r\non the operational risk levels of power systems should be\r\ntaken into account in power system maintenance scheduling\r\nand operation planning. This paper studies the midshort-\r\nterm risk assessment methodology considering the\r\nimpact of the external environment. The relationship model\r\nbetween natural disasters and transmission lines is presented.\r\nThe conditional outage rate model and the sampling\r\ntechnique are then proposed considering the correlated\r\noutage of multiple transmission lines when a disaster\r\nhappens. The framework of the mid-short-term risk\r\nassessment model is outlined. A test case of Jiangxi provincial\r\npower grid validates the proposed model. The\r\nresults show that the model can quantify the impact of\r\ndisasters on the forced outage rate of transmission component\r\nand their outage correlation, and thus effectively\r\nrevealing the mid-short-term risk of power systems. The\r\nmodel can facilitate a more strategic decision-making on\r\nmaintenance scheduling and operation planning of power\r\nsystems.
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